Forming in October, Otis grew stronger by churning up deeper and warmer water because it was later in the year. Erick is early in the year and the deep water it would churn up is cooler and doesn’t fuel rapid intensification. Even so, the surface water is plenty hot enough, said MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel.

Hurricane Erick is expected to strengthen rapidly into a major Category 3 storm, before making landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast on Thursday, Mexico's civil protection agency has said.