The impact probability describes how likely a hazardous asteroid is to hit Earth. For example, if the impact probability is 1%, it means that in 1 of 100 cases, it hits Earth.

c) On sober reflection, what’s most likely to happen. The weighted average of these is your most probability forecast. Calculate it using the formula [a + b + (4 x c)].

The impact probability describes how likely a hazardous asteroid is to hit Earth. For example, if the impact probability is 1%, it means that in 1 of 100 cases, it hits Earth.

Learn how to calculate Value at Risk (VaR) to effectively assess financial risks in portfolios, using historical, variance-covariance, and Monte Carlo methods.

NASA/JPL But while the probability of hitting Earth went down, the probability of the asteroid hitting the Moon started increasing. It went up to 1.7% on Feb. 24. As of April 2, it is 3.8%.

Any uncertainty in the calculation of the object’s orbit causes variations in the predicted solution. Instead of one precise orbit, the calculation usually gives scientists a cloud of its possible ...