Bayes' theorem, also called Bayes' rule or Bayesian theorem, is a mathematical formula used to determine the conditional probability of events. The theorem uses the power of statistics and probability ...

Having a strong opinion about an issue can make it hard to take in new information about it, or to consider other options when they’re presented. Thankfully, there’s an old rule that can help us avoid ...

It’s estimated that human adults make about 35,000 decisions a day — the percentage of good decisions depends on the adult. These choices can be as banal as deciding to roll or crumple toilet paper or ...

An international team of researchers has identified a quantum counterpart to Bayes’ rule. The likelihood you assign to an ...

Given a few assumptions, the probability of a conjunction is raised, and the probability of its negation is lowered, by conditionalising upon one of the conjuncts. This simple result appears to bring ...

A man went on an airplane ride. Unfortunately, he fell out. Fortunately, he had a parachute on. Unfortunately, the parachute did not open. Fortunately, there was a haystack below him, directly in the ...

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics), Vol. 61, No. 2 (MARCH 2012), pp. 219-235 (17 pages) We propose a randomized phase II clinical trial design based on Bayesian ...

An analysis technique that has been applied to eliminating spam. It "learns" to differentiate real mail from advertising by examining the words and punctuation in large samples of both types of ...